Tips and Pointers for Improved Decision Making

Tips and Pointers for Improved Decision Making
Customer Reviews: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition

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Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition

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74 of 76 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars Think Twice Because Your Habits and Mind Tend Not To Let You
Over the millennia, our brains have been developed to be the most energy conserving part of our bodies due, in part, that our distant forefathers had to make quick decisions of friend or foe. Therefore, we rarely take time, and energy, to think or rethink things over. If one does not spend a little extra time to think thru your important decisions, you tend to be on “Thin…
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Published 13 months ago by James East

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8 of 9 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars Few pearls of wisdom
As a Kahneman and Tversky fan, I was a bit afraid that this book would be a repetition of many other books that I have read in the past. Mauboussin exercises the reader’s mind and that certainly makes his book worthwhile. He is a thoughtful and entertaining writer. While this book is enjoyable, I am skeptical of its practical value. The value of the book is its…
Read the full review ›
Published 5 months ago by Houman Tamaddon

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4.0 out of 5 stars A master piece!, September 3, 2010
By
Ho Kheong Tan “Avid reader” (Singapore) – See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)
This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)
When I read this book I rate the book based on my 5 established objectives

1. Breakthrough knowledge and thoughts (Weight: 20%)
2. Clarity of objectives and suitability of book title (Weight: 10%)
3. Simplicity of applying the principles to daily routines (Weight: 20%)
4. Good language and ease of reading (Weight: 20%)
5. Useful tips, phrases, models, real life illustrations of discussed principles (Weight: 30%)

A master piece! The common mistakes shared in the book would be valuable in situations where the stakes are sufficiently high.

Michael put across his points clearly with anecdotal and empirical evidence. The virtuosity comes in the form of maintaining the right balance between clarity and the quick pace of the book. He put in commendable effort to summarise at the end of each chapter that helps the reader recap and allows busy professionals a quick brief on the essence of that chapter.

In his 8 chapters, Michael performed the impossible task of consolidating most of management theories on common mistakes made by decision makers:-

1. Without Outside view
2. Entrap by tunnel vision
3. Excessive reliance on experts
4. Lack of situation awareness
5. Ignoring that more is different when analysing non-transitive adaptive systems
6. Focus on attributes and not circumstances
7. Unaware of the ah-whoom effect which Michael used in an attempt to explain the current financial crisis
8. Without sorting luck from skill

2 invaluable concepts; reversion to mean and premortems were explicitly explained.
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1 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Don’t think twice read it, August 13, 2010
By
Richard Brock – See all my reviews
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This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)
I really enjoyed this book, the author made it easy to understand his concepts and how they relate to decisions I needto make.

I only wished the book was a little longer.
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8 of 11 people found the following review helpful:
1.0 out of 5 stars So bad, I returned the Kindle version., June 23, 2010
By
Eric William (Michigan) – See all my reviews
This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)
While the book was an interesting read – it explains WHY people makes mistakes – it done NOT teach you how to “Harness the Power of Counterintuition.” In fact, the last chapter “Conclusion” offers little way to protect oneself from the errors in thinking the book brings up.

The stuff on regression towards mean was good, but is well documented in the most basic college stats course and many business books.

I was looking for more about HOW to AVOID the mistakes, not just stories about the mistakes.

I think other reviewers focused on the academic discussion of what people do that is wrong with their thinking. While that is fine, the book promises that readers will learn a way avoid these mistakes. That is, the book fails to leave the reader with any “power” or framework to make better decisions.
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8 of 9 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars Few pearls of wisdom, May 29, 2010
By
Houman Tamaddon “Rational Investor” (Seattle, WA) – See all my reviews
This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)
As a Kahneman and Tversky fan, I was a bit afraid that this book would be a repetition of many other books that I have read in the past. Mauboussin exercises the reader’s mind and that certainly makes his book worthwhile. He is a thoughtful and entertaining writer. While this book is enjoyable, I am skeptical of its practical value. The value of the book is its presentation of some errors people make in making decisions. I was underwhelmed by his advice on how to improve your decisions. He makes many great points but also many points that are academic and not practical in the real world. For example, he describes a physically fit, young forest ranger who presented to the emergency room with chest pain. The ER physician concluded that the patient’s pain was unlikely to be cardiac and discharged him. The next day the ranger returned with a myocardial infarction. It is easy to criticize the physician after the fact as having tunnel vision. Perhaps this type of thinking has contributed greatly to our rising healthcare costs. Should you order expensive tests to avoid these types of mistakes? When you hear hoof prints, think horses – not zebras. One could similarly detail many examples where over testing and the fact that the physician considered too many diagnoses lead to poor outcomes. Unfortunately we rarely hear about morbidity and mortality associated with unnecessary tests and procedures.

In another section, the author touts the wisdom of crowds. He cites how a large group’s average guess is often more accurate than most of the individuals’ guess. The group has to be diverse and have incentives to make a good guess. He admits that the stock market is not accurate but attributes it to the fact that the crowd is not diverse. It appeared to me that he only looked at the points that supported his theories at times. Using Mauboussin’s thinking individuals who invested with Warren Buffett should have simply stuck with an index fund. Of course many others would have been better off investing in index funds instead of with “experts”. The point is the answers are much more gray and perhaps the greatest value of this book is making readers consider alternative theories.
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4.0 out of 5 stars Offers insight on how human biases result in flawed decisions…, May 17, 2010
By
Eric Eskin (Wilmington, DE USA) – See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)
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This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)
Good, high-level introduction on how we (our minds) frame and make decisions. Each of us brings biases and self-developed heuristics to the problem solving process. This book does a good job of presenting the background on numerous biases and offers ways in which we can “catch ourselves” before we utilize flawed frames of reference in developing solutions. There are numerous books on this topic-I would recommend this book as a good starter.
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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Forewarned is forearmed., April 9, 2010
By
AdamSmythe (Colorado) – See all my reviews
(TOP 1000 REVIEWER)
Amazon Verified Purchase(What’s this?)
This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)
This short and easy-reading book packs a real wallop when it comes to identifying and explaining common mental tendencies that can impair our judgment. These tendencies may be hard-wired into our DNA as a result of events thousands of years ago. For example, suppose that while two cavemen were walking down a path, they both heard a sound in a nearby bush. One caveman bolts immediately, while the other stops and thinks to himself, “I wonder what that is?” While he’s thinking, a rattlesnake strikes out and bites him–and he dies shortly thereafter. That caveman’s DNA didn’t get passed on to future generations, while the DNA of the caveman who ran first and thought later does. So it may make sense that in uncertain or stressful situations, we have a tendency to react quickly. But modern society’s situations may call for careful thought more than immediate reaction, so at times even smart people can be led by their instinctive responses into poor decisions. As author Michael Mauboussin puts it, “Smart people make poor decisions because they have the same factory settings on their mental software as the rest of us.”

This book is filled with interesting examples of how our instinctive first responses can lead to less than optimal choices. I’ll relate two of the book’s examples, so you can get a feel for what’s in the book, and then you can hopefully decided better whether you want to buy it. The first example that comes to mind may be called the “inside versus outside” view. To illustrate “inside” thinking, consider the case of race horse Big Brown in 2008. He won the Kentucky Derby by four and three-quarters lengths, and then he won the Preakness Stakes by five and one-quarter lengths. Prior to Big Brown’s attempt to win the Belmont Stakes (and thus capture racing’s Triple Crown), he looked great, and his owner expressed a lot of confidence. On race day for the Belmont, Big Brown’s odds were 3 – 10, making him the easy (75% likelihood of winning) favorite. That’s the details-oriented “inside” view. The “outside” view is that of the 29 prior horses to compete in the Belmont after winning both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, only 11 won the Belmont (about 38%). Further, since 1950 (perhaps when better training methods were more commonly practiced) only 3 of 20 horses (15%) with a chance to win the Triple Crown won the Belmont. In short, the inside view was optimistic, but the outside view wasn’t. It turns out that Big Brown finished ninth in the Belmont.

A briefer second example of how our “mental models” affect our thinking and decision making, concerns French and German wines available for sale in a store. When French music was played, customers chose French wine 77% of the time, yet when German music was played in the store, customers chose German wine 73% of the time. The customers were asked whether they heard the music and whether it affected their choices. Most customers recalled hearing the music, but they denied that it had anything to do with their choices.

Okay, perhaps these examples will help you understand the kind of reasoning processes that author Mauboussin examines and discusses in Think Twice. Indeed, the book’s title is the shortest advice he has to give to people facing situations where instinctive responses may impede the best decisions. As they say, forewarned is for forearmed.
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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Clear and Practical Guide to Making Big Decisions, February 28, 2010
By
Christopher Conley (Stamford, CT USA) – See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)
This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)

In Think Twice Michael Mauboussin has written a practical guide to better decision making for business people, investors and others. With clarity, brevity, and a focus on action, Mr. Mauboussin mines research in the world of psychology and science to deliver telling insights into human behavior we will all recognize in ourselves and others that can lead to poor decisions if we let them.

Amplify’d from www.amazon.com

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74 of 76 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars
Think Twice Because Your Habits and Mind Tend Not To Let You
Over the millennia, our brains have been developed to be the most energy conserving part of our bodies due, in part, that our distant forefathers had to make quick decisions of friend or foe. Therefore, we rarely take time, and energy, to think or rethink things over. If one does not spend a little extra time to think thru your important decisions, you tend to be on “Thin…

Published 13 months ago by James East

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versus

8 of 9 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars
Few pearls of wisdom
As a Kahneman and Tversky fan, I was a bit afraid that this book would be a repetition of many other books that I have read in the past. Mauboussin exercises the reader’s mind and that certainly makes his book worthwhile. He is a thoughtful and entertaining writer. While this book is enjoyable, I am skeptical of its practical value. The value of the book is its…

Published 5 months ago by Houman Tamaddon

› See more 3 star, 2 star, 1 star reviews

‹ Previous | 1 2 3 4| Next ›
Most Helpful First | Newest First

4.0 out of 5 stars
A master piece!, September 3, 2010
This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)

When I read this book I rate the book based on my 5 established objectives

1. Breakthrough knowledge and thoughts (Weight: 20%)

2. Clarity of objectives and suitability of book title (Weight: 10%)

3. Simplicity of applying the principles to daily routines (Weight: 20%)

4. Good language and ease of reading (Weight: 20%)

5. Useful tips, phrases, models, real life illustrations of discussed principles (Weight: 30%)

A master piece! The common mistakes shared in the book would be valuable in situations where the stakes are sufficiently high.

Michael put across his points clearly with anecdotal and empirical evidence. The virtuosity comes in the form of maintaining the right balance between clarity and the quick pace of the book. He put in commendable effort to summarise at the end of each chapter that helps the reader recap and allows busy professionals a quick brief on the essence of that chapter.

In his 8 chapters, Michael performed the impossible task of consolidating most of management theories on common mistakes made by decision makers:-

1. Without Outside view

2. Entrap by tunnel vision

3. Excessive reliance on experts

4. Lack of situation awareness

5. Ignoring that more is different when analysing non-transitive adaptive systems

6. Focus on attributes and not circumstances

7. Unaware of the ah-whoom effect which Michael used in an attempt to explain the current financial crisis

8. Without sorting luck from skill

2 invaluable concepts; reversion to mean and premortems were explicitly explained.

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1 of 2 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Don’t think twice read it, August 13, 2010
Amazon Verified Purchase(What’s this?)
This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)

I really enjoyed this book, the author made it easy to understand his concepts and how they relate to decisions I needto make.

I only wished the book was a little longer.

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8 of 11 people found the following review helpful:
1.0 out of 5 stars
So bad, I returned the Kindle version., June 23, 2010
By 

This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)

While the book was an interesting read – it explains WHY people makes mistakes – it done NOT teach you how to “Harness the Power of Counterintuition.” In fact, the last chapter “Conclusion” offers little way to protect oneself from the errors in thinking the book brings up.

The stuff on regression towards mean was good, but is well documented in the most basic college stats course and many business books.

I was looking for more about HOW to AVOID the mistakes, not just stories about the mistakes.

I think other reviewers focused on the academic discussion of what people do that is wrong with their thinking. While that is fine, the book promises that readers will learn a way avoid these mistakes. That is, the book fails to leave the reader with any “power” or framework to make better decisions.

Help other customers find the most helpful reviews 
Was this review helpful to you? Yes
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8 of 9 people found the following review helpful:
3.0 out of 5 stars
Few pearls of wisdom, May 29, 2010
This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)

As a Kahneman and Tversky fan, I was a bit afraid that this book would be a repetition of many other books that I have read in the past. Mauboussin exercises the reader’s mind and that certainly makes his book worthwhile. He is a thoughtful and entertaining writer. While this book is enjoyable, I am skeptical of its practical value. The value of the book is its presentation of some errors people make in making decisions. I was underwhelmed by his advice on how to improve your decisions. He makes many great points but also many points that are academic and not practical in the real world. For example, he describes a physically fit, young forest ranger who presented to the emergency room with chest pain. The ER physician concluded that the patient’s pain was unlikely to be cardiac and discharged him. The next day the ranger returned with a myocardial infarction. It is easy to criticize the physician after the fact as having tunnel vision. Perhaps this type of thinking has contributed greatly to our rising healthcare costs. Should you order expensive tests to avoid these types of mistakes? When you hear hoof prints, think horses – not zebras. One could similarly detail many examples where over testing and the fact that the physician considered too many diagnoses lead to poor outcomes. Unfortunately we rarely hear about morbidity and mortality associated with unnecessary tests and procedures.

In another section, the author touts the wisdom of crowds. He cites how a large group’s average guess is often more accurate than most of the individuals’ guess. The group has to be diverse and have incentives to make a good guess. He admits that the stock market is not accurate but attributes it to the fact that the crowd is not diverse. It appeared to me that he only looked at the points that supported his theories at times. Using Mauboussin’s thinking individuals who invested with Warren Buffett should have simply stuck with an index fund. Of course many others would have been better off investing in index funds instead of with “experts”. The point is the answers are much more gray and perhaps the greatest value of this book is making readers consider alternative theories.

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4.0 out of 5 stars
Offers insight on how human biases result in flawed decisions…, May 17, 2010
By 
Eric Eskin (Wilmington, DE USA) – See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)
  

Amazon Verified Purchase(What’s this?)
This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)

Good, high-level introduction on how we (our minds) frame and make decisions. Each of us brings biases and self-developed heuristics to the problem solving process. This book does a good job of presenting the background on numerous biases and offers ways in which we can “catch ourselves” before we utilize flawed frames of reference in developing solutions. There are numerous books on this topic-I would recommend this book as a good starter.

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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Forewarned is forearmed., April 9, 2010
Amazon Verified Purchase(What’s this?)
This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)

This short and easy-reading book packs a real wallop when it comes to identifying and explaining common mental tendencies that can impair our judgment. These tendencies may be hard-wired into our DNA as a result of events thousands of years ago. For example, suppose that while two cavemen were walking down a path, they both heard a sound in a nearby bush. One caveman bolts immediately, while the other stops and thinks to himself, “I wonder what that is?” While he’s thinking, a rattlesnake strikes out and bites him–and he dies shortly thereafter. That caveman’s DNA didn’t get passed on to future generations, while the DNA of the caveman who ran first and thought later does. So it may make sense that in uncertain or stressful situations, we have a tendency to react quickly. But modern society’s situations may call for careful thought more than immediate reaction, so at times even smart people can be led by their instinctive responses into poor decisions. As author Michael Mauboussin puts it, “Smart people make poor decisions because they have the same factory settings on their mental software as the rest of us.”

This book is filled with interesting examples of how our instinctive first responses can lead to less than optimal choices. I’ll relate two of the book’s examples, so you can get a feel for what’s in the book, and then you can hopefully decided better whether you want to buy it. The first example that comes to mind may be called the “inside versus outside” view. To illustrate “inside” thinking, consider the case of race horse Big Brown in 2008. He won the Kentucky Derby by four and three-quarters lengths, and then he won the Preakness Stakes by five and one-quarter lengths. Prior to Big Brown’s attempt to win the Belmont Stakes (and thus capture racing’s Triple Crown), he looked great, and his owner expressed a lot of confidence. On race day for the Belmont, Big Brown’s odds were 3 – 10, making him the easy (75% likelihood of winning) favorite. That’s the details-oriented “inside” view. The “outside” view is that of the 29 prior horses to compete in the Belmont after winning both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, only 11 won the Belmont (about 38%). Further, since 1950 (perhaps when better training methods were more commonly practiced) only 3 of 20 horses (15%) with a chance to win the Triple Crown won the Belmont. In short, the inside view was optimistic, but the outside view wasn’t. It turns out that Big Brown finished ninth in the Belmont.

A briefer second example of how our “mental models” affect our thinking and decision making, concerns French and German wines available for sale in a store. When French music was played, customers chose French wine 77% of the time, yet when German music was played in the store, customers chose German wine 73% of the time. The customers were asked whether they heard the music and whether it affected their choices. Most customers recalled hearing the music, but they denied that it had anything to do with their choices.

Okay, perhaps these examples will help you understand the kind of reasoning processes that author Mauboussin examines and discusses in Think Twice. Indeed, the book’s title is the shortest advice he has to give to people facing situations where instinctive responses may impede the best decisions. As they say, forewarned is for forearmed.

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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Clear and Practical Guide to Making Big Decisions, February 28, 2010
By 

This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)

In Think Twice Michael Mauboussin has written a practical guide to better decision making for business people, investors and others. With clarity, brevity, and a focus on action, Mr. Mauboussin mines research in the world of psychology and science to deliver telling insights into human behavior we will all recognize in ourselves and others that can lead to poor decisions if we let them.

When that little voice inside us says, “I really need to think this one through carefully”, because the stakes are high and the situation is complex, where do we begin?

Mr. Mauboussin suggests that we begin by not fooling ourselves. He walks us through the many ways our natural inclination for self deception can lead to poor decisions. We all tend to embrace the “inside view” of a situation because of our own sense of superiority, optimism and control in dealing with personal and professional problems. We let anecdotal evidence skew our perception of facts. We underestimate the time it takes to complete a task. We are often unaware of how our situation influences our actions.

Mr. Mauboussin presents the types of decisions that are best informed by experts, collectives or computers. He shows us how outcomes are shaped by luck or skill and whether they may be subject to extreme events. He demonstrates how tunnel vision may unwittingly narrow our perception of decision making options.

The book is full of everyday mistakes and misperceptions that are recognizable but not always well understood or explained.

When you have a big decision to make, take out Think Twice and a pad of paper and work your way through it. You will avoid making common mistakes and you will find the tools to help you make good decisions.

If you don’t have a big decision to make, read it to find out the mistakes that are made every day all around us. You will recognize immediately many of the situations he describes in his book and will benefit from the insight Mr. Mauboussin brings to them.

Either way you will come out ahead.

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4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
All the more compelling because Mauboussin’s principles can be applied in areas beyond those where he proposed they be used., February 28, 2010
By 
Charles M. Cohon (Morton Grove, IL United States) – See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)
  

Amazon Verified Purchase(What’s this?)
This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)

“Think Twice” was wonderfully eye-opening and a joy to read.

And Mauboussin’s points are all the more credible because there is further supporting evidence of the principles he describes well outside the domains where he proposed they be used. The principles in “Think Twice” fit perfectly with W. Edwards Deming’s work that led to Japan’s postwar resurgence and became the foundation of today’s Lean Manufacturing practices and the Toyota Production System.

Unlike Mauboussin, Deming did not use the phrase “mean reversion,” but Deming’s view that manufacturing defects were evidence of inherent variability in manufacturing systems rather than evidence of lapses in a particular worker’s effort fits perfectly with Mauboussin’s work: “In a probabilistic environment, you are better served by focusing on the process by which you make a decision than on the outcome” (p.xx) could just as easily have come from Deming if Deming had been as good a writer as he was a statistician.

Again, Mauboussin’s points are all the more compelling because they can be successfully applied to situations far beyond those where he proposed they be used. “Think Twice” is a must-read for anyone who wants to make well-informed, insightful decisions.

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11 of 11 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
A useful contribution to this genre, February 21, 2010
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This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)

There are now many good books available on why we make errors in judgment and decision making. This book represents Michael Mauboussin’s contribution to this genre, and I think he has done a good job in pulling together a lot of information from a diverse range of credible sources. The information he presents has broad application, though he has a slight emphasis on business and investing applications (his own area of specialization). The book is also a fairly easy and quick read.

Perhaps the best way to describe the content of the book is to summarize the key points, roughly in the order they appear in the book:

(1) “Think twice” to avoid errors in judgment and decision making, especially in situations where stakes are high.

(2) Learn from the experiences of others in similar situations (making use of statistics when possible), rather than relying only on your own perspective, and don’t be excessively optimistic about expecting to beat the odds.

(3) Beware of anecdotal information, since it can paint a biased picture. Related to this point, don’t infer patterns which don’t exist, especially when the available data is limited, and avoid the bias of favoring evidence which supports your beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence (deliberately seek dissenting opinions if necessary).

(4) Avoid making decisions while at an emotional extreme (stress, anger, fear, anxiety, greed, euphoria, grief, etc.).

(5) Beware of how incentives, situational pressures, and the way choices are presented may consciously or subconsciously affect behavior and shape decisions.

(6) In areas where the track record of “experts” is poor (eg, in dealing with complex systems), rely on “the wisdom of crowds” instead. Such crowds will generally perform better when their members are capable and genuinely diverse, and if dissent is tolerated (otherwise the crowd will be prone to groupthink).

(7) Use intuition where appropriate (eg, stable linear systems with clear feedback), but recognize its limitations otherwise (eg, when dealing with complex systems).

(8) Avoid overspecialization, aiming to have enough generalist background to draw on diverse sources of information.

(9) Make appropriate use of the power of information technology.

(10) Overcome inertia by asking “If we did not do this already, would we, knowing what we now know, go into it?”

(11) Because complex systems have emergent properties (the whole is more than the sum of the parts), avoid oversimplifying them with reductionistic models (simulation models are often helpful), remember that the behavior of components is affected by the context of the system, and beware of unintended consequences when manipulating such systems.

(12) Remember that correlation doesn’t necessarily indicate causality.

(13) Remember that the behavior of some systems involves nonlinearities and thresholds (bifurcations, instabilities, phase transitions, etc.) which can result in a large quantitative change or a qualitative change in system behavior.

(14) When dealing with systems involving a high level of uncertainty, rather than betting on a particular outcome, consider the full range of possible outcomes, and employ strategies which mitigate downside risks while capturing upside potential.

(15) Because of uncertainties and heterogeneities, luck often plays a role in success or failure, so consider process as much as outcomes and don’t overestimate the role of skill (or lack thereof). A useful test of how much difference skill makes in a particular situation is to ask how easy it is to lose on purpose.

(16) Remember that luck tends to even out over time, so expect outcomes to often “revert to the mean” (eventually move close to the average). But this isn’t always the case, since outliers can also occur, especially when positive feedback processes are involved (eg, in systems in which components come to coordinate their behavior); in a business context, remember to make a good first impression.

(17) Make use of checklists to help ensure that important things aren’t forgotten.

(18) To scrutinize decisions, perform a “premortem” examination. This involves assuming that your decision hasn’t worked out, coming up with plausible explanations for the failure, and then revising the decision accordingly to improve the likelihood of a better outcome.

While this book doesn’t really present any new material, I still found it to be a good resource, so I recommend it. After all, this subject matter is important and practical, yet also counterintuitive, so it makes sense to read many books to help these insights sink in and actually change one’s habits.

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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Think Twice,Read Twice, February 14, 2010
By 
Michael P. Maslanka (dallas, texas United States) – See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)
  

This review is from: Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Hardcover)

Excellent summary of ongoing cognitive research with solid explanations of regression to the mean(outstanding performance is impossible to maintain;it slips back towards the mean);update on Asch’s experiments on conformity(group’s deliberate wrong answer to obvious question actually changes the subject’s visual perceptions);satisfying read on how the media lionizes certain stocks and CEOs who, time and again, fall back to average performance. Each chapter ends with valuable and useful take home points, so that the ideas talked about can be put to work in our lives. A must read for anyone interested in cognitive theory.

Read more at www.amazon.com

 

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